Everyday Killings in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under President Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures
The typical count of daily killings monthly in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent official statistics. However, security experts have warned that murder numbers might not indicate better national security.
Marked Drop in Per-Day Numbers
There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September of last year. This data was provided by the director of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.
“The result in murders that we’ve had during these past months is very notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that last month the lowest figure of murders were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.
Historical Background and Official Plan
Violent organized crime infighting, combined with the administration's highly military efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent times. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.
That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety plan for an seemingly steeper drop in killings in the current year.
At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”
The central pillars of the President's safety plan include:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
- Advancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
- Increased cooperation between government authorities.
Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations
But, public safety experts urged caution that relying on murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the increase in other criminal activities such as abductions.
“That would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the murder numbers and say: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”
Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.
“Data on murders is no longer valid for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”
Vargas added that using monthly averages of everyday killings was also an issue because it may mask periods when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.
“Relying on the per-day average renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.
Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress
An area where the administration can cite the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of narcotics seized.
“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.
Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration
Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still grappling with high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.
A short time later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the country to express their anger at corruption and narco-violence.
“The administration presents [data] in a way to construct a story of security. Politically it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” Vargas remarked.
